July 3, 2008

Digging Deep on a Property (and I’m not Talking Pockets Here)

I’m very impressed by the large quantities of information that is available online for a property on sites such as Redfin, Trulia, and Zillow. The Bay Area is very lucky this way, although not every city in the state, or every state in the country is the same. But if you are serious about a property, or want to know a bit more about your neighbor, there is a way to get out the shovel and dig a little deeper, so to speak. This online detective service is called Property Shark.

Property Shark currently covers California, Washington state, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Florida. They have conceivably mined every bit of info that is available about a house and put it in one place. They offer the ability to search any home 15 major markets in those states, as well as get information on foreclosures and comparables

While you can use the web site without having an account, you will not get the full spectrum of information. You can sign up and get all the goodies, on up to 8 homes per day (takes about 20 seconds). I signed up to see the data on my own home, and while there were a few errors, only one seems attributable to the program itself, the others were county records.

What do you get? Well, it’s a long list, but since I’m browsing anyway, I’ll detail it out for you.

• Basic Overview: Technical location (address, APN, subdividion, etc.), Age and size of location, Zoning info
• Ownership Data: Names, Address
• Title Document info with current owner and previous owner, along with date of sale and sale amount
• Last Sale Data, including initial mortgage amount(s)
• Maps
• Assessments and Exemptions
• Property Tax information
• Complete property description (which in my case had several errors)
• FEMA Flood Map
• Environmental Information
• Wildfire Map (with history of fires in the area)
• Fire Threat
• Valuation Model (sophisticated tool to value your home via comparables)
• Neighborhood Price History (there is an error in calculating the median $/sf for the property you are researching)
• Neighbor Links – info on last sale and sale price, plus link to their property shark page
• Demographic Maps – with population density, age, income

Property Shark also provides links to maps (Google, Yahoo, MapQuest), as well as links to local school districts, sex offender info, seismic hazards, and political contribution data.

I also checked into their Foreclosure information and found 3 homes for auction on the San Mateo County Courthouse Steps on Monday July 7th. I had previously had a hard time finding this information.

Overall, I found it to be a pretty comprehensive program, and might yield a bit more insight into a home you are considering.

July 2, 2008

Menlo Park: Burgess Park Neighborhood

I had the opportunity to swing by this neighborhood earlier this week, and take a gander at the Morgan Lane development (model home at right). I wrote about the grand opening last Fall, and now most of the construction is complete or close to it on the 56 homes scheduled to be built. These are 3 and 4 bedroom homes, two or three stories, ranging from 1,470 square feet to 1,951 square feet, with a base price of $1,249,000 to $1,409,000. I thought that they looked mighty close to one another, but I like the old town charm that they project. Reminded me of being on the Warner Brothers lot down in Burbank, walking through the Stars Hollow set (Gilmore Girls). Quaint is the word I would use.

Our friends over at Playborhood reviewed these homes and their kid-friendly attributes, coming up with a mixed verdict. But I would add to their list of Pros the nearby Burgess Park. Burgess is over 9 acres with majestic oaks, lots of lawn and open space to play, plus baseball field, soccer field, tennis courts, basketball courts, playground and picnic areas. Next door is Burgess Pool, where I swam as a child, as well as a Rec Center, Skate Park and Sports Center.

There is also a great walkability factor about this neighborhood. Close to CalTrain and downtown Menlo Park, it would make a nice stroll to go have a coffee at Cafe Borrone or to browse the books at Kepler’s. But as you see by the price of the Morgan Lane homes, this is not an area for the poor or working class. While there are pockets of apartments in this neighborhood, they tend to be better kept and probably don’t come cheap. Right now there are only two homes for sale, and they are running a whopping $849 and $1009 per square foot.

510 Barron, just off Burgess Road near the Menlo Park City Maintenance Center, is an 8-year-old traditional two-story home with 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths. It sits on a 3,851 sf corner lot in a small development, with HOA fees at $30/month. Originally listed 75 days ago at $1,399,000, it has been reduced 5.3% to $1,325,000 ($849/sf). When it was new in 1999, it sold for $645,000.

250 E. Creek Drive is a remodeled 3/2 of 1,680 square feet on an oversized 7,597 sf lot. It’s located on a quiet street between Willow Road and Burgess Avenue. On the market 16 days, it is priced at $1,695,000 ($1,009/sf) and last sold (prior to remodel) in 2007 for $1,085,000. Open House July 5 and 6, 1:30-4:30 pm.

July 2, 2008

Weekly News Round-Up

MSN Money ran a story Monday by Bill Fleckenstein titled “The End of the Superbubble.” Apparently “bubble” isn’t descriptive enough, and now we are referring to the past flourishing economy as a “superbubble.” And while we all know it is coming to an end, and taking (the worlds’) housing, credit, banking, and car markets with it, apparently Alan Greenspan is to blame. “Behold the wretched beast he created,” writes Fleckstein, and I must say I do admire his prose. Do I agree? Do you? I’m hesitant to blame any one person for such a widespread faltering of the economy, but he tries to make a case for just that.

Seeking Alpha got out the crystal ball and is asking “Will Housing Bottom in 2010 or 2012?” With phrases like “lagging indicator” and “multi-dip recession,” it gets a bit technical, but you might want to see what they say.

We are already seeing the effects of the drop in tax revenue in California, as I am sure they are across the country. Businessweek provides some insight in their article “The Next Victim of the Real Estate Crisis,” which addresses the decreased cash flow to governmental budgets and what types of cuts we are likely to see.

California Fire Update: The top third of the state continues to be plagued by the majority of active fires, while SoCal looks quiet for the time being. CalFire reports a total of 72 active fires at this time. Locally, the Basin Fire down near Big Sur is still actively burning (3% contained as of yesterday), covering over 50,000 acres, while the Indians fire is almost completely contained. Air quality is continuing to improve in the Bay Area, but if you are traveling, make sure to check resort areas, and possible road closures.

Quickdraw McGraw, that’s what I’m gonna rename Socketsite. They already posted June RE numbers for San Francisco. Lightening fast, they are. Unfortunately, the sales aren’t on the same trajectory, and are sloooooooowing down. While listings are up 34%, sales are down—to the tune of 25-30%. For visuals, and the full scoop, you can head over here to their “Listed Sales Activity” post.

Burbed helped to explain how Bay Area housing can be labeled “affordable.” Their recent post on Bay Area Jobs, shows that the average wage for a tech worker in San Jose/Silicon Valley is $144,828. If you are a married couple each with that kind of income, woohoo, you are probably in heaven right now, doing the eeny, meeny, miny, moe trick, trying to decide which of the 1,000 houses in your price range you want. As for the rest of the poor……

July 1, 2008

Doing the Math: The Bay Area Real Estate Market

I have noticed a recent increase in advertisements for real estate classes and seminars. How to Buy Foreclosures, How to Buy Your First Home, How to Get Rich Quick…you get the picture. For a price, you can hear “experts” tell you what you need to know. Most of these feel dishonest in some way, an attempt to lure the masses with false data. So I was thrilled to see that the Commonwealth Club had put together a forum to discuss the question of “Buy, Sell, or Wait.”

The Commonwealth Club is known for its discussions and forums, and they are able to draw in the cream of the crop to edify and illuminate their audience. This time around they are bringing together Joseph Perkins, president and CEO of Home Builders Association of Northern California, Rich Arzaga, financial planner and Cal professor of real estate investment, Tom Davidoff, Cal assistant professor of real estate at Haas School of Business, and Joske Thompson, an agent at Pacific Union GMAC Real Estate. Socketsite editor, Adam Koval, will moderate the panel.

The event is tonight at 6:30 at the Commonwealth Club, 595 Market Street, 2nd floor. Cost is $20 for the general public, $12 for members, and $7 for students.

If you are unable to make it to the forum, you can get some simple online help. Here are three sources of analysis and comparison for you to play with:

(1) MSN Money Home Affordability Calculator (HAC)
This is a very simplistic way of calculating the maximum house you can afford. You enter your income, monthly minimum payment on your debts, and your down payment amount. Fill in the interest rate (no, not the rate you’d LIKE to have, but the going rate), and estimate your credit rating. The HAC will tell you what you can afford, the size of your loan and an estimated payment, along with info like whether you might need to pay PMI.

(2) The New York Times Rent-to-Own Graph
This calculator will allow you to do a quick comparison of renting and buying equivalent homes. I put in the monthly rent for a 3 bedroom home in our neighborhood, along with an average sale price for the same home. Assuming a 10% down payment, 6.1% mortgage rate, the program will provide a graph with two sliding indicators. WARNING: DO not be alarmed if the initial setting says “Buying is never better than renting over 30 years if…” You do have to input (on the sliding scale) the annual home appreciation and annual rent increase. I tried the graph at -7% appreciation (Based on the last two years on our home) and rent increases of +9% (which is what my daughter has experienced the last two years). The result: Buying is better than renting, if I own for 21 years. I also tried the graph at +20% (given the annual increases in the first 11 years of owning our home, and factoring in the last two negative years) and +9%. The result: Buying is better than renting after 1 year. Of course, in this case, buying is only better than renting if you can afford to do it!

(3) Housemath: Stock versus Real Estate
This is another analysis program, which digs a little deeper and requires more information. You provide a location and home price, enter mortgage details and approximate appreciation, then tax advantages, closing costs, and amount of time you expect to own the home. It may take a few more minutes, but what you get is whether it is prudent to buy a home over the long haul. It also provides a true monthly cost. I was slightly confused by this last factor, but found tabs at the top of the analysis that give details of everything. In my analysis, using a retirement home I would purchase in Las Vegas, I found that it would be more advantageous to invest the money elsewhere (stocks, bonds, mutual funds, etc), not that this isn’t abundantly apparent given the Las Vegas  housing market!

June 30, 2008

Mansion Mondays: Cupertino Contemporary

Cupertino, located in the foothills of the Santa Cruz Mountains, is home to the large Apple Computer campus and approximately 54,000 residents. With good schools, freeway access, and temperate climate, this suburb is composed primarily of larger homes sitting on the sites of former orchards. Although not really known for its McMansions, the price tag to live in this city can be a bit steep. Currently, with 82 homes for sale, only 26 are listed under $1mil, with the majority (46) in the $1-2mil range, and 10 properties over the $2mil mark. Today’s featured property is located at 22332 Regnart Road, almost at the end of the road.

Driving up through the gated entrance, you’ll encounter a quarter-century old, single-story contemporary home. With its wood exterior and mid-mod influence, it fits well onto the two-acre wooded property, which backs to the Fremont-Older Open Space, offering residents additional privacy.

The home itself is 4,730 square feet with a total of 5 bedrooms and 4 baths. Walking in, there is a large formal entry, branching off into access to the living room, the dining room, updated eat-in kitchen (which opens to a family room), and the hallway to bedrooms. All rooms face the expansive wood deck, with most having a view of the pool and spa, as well as a spectacular view of the valley all the way to the Bay.

The home, on the market 69 days, is priced at $3,295,000 ($697/sf). There are few recent comparables, but in February a similar-sized home on the same street sold for $2,587,500 or $625/sf. Located at 22245 Regnart, this two-story Mediterranean home built in 1984 is a 4/3.5 of 4,072 square feet sitting on 2.5 acres.

Recent Sweet Digs Posts:
Happy 100 Ross!
City of Alameda: Recent Sales
Monterey County Comes to Redfin
Price Cuts in the Creek
Marin Agents Looking for Luck
A Stroll, A Wander, A Saunter, A Hike, A Promenade
Can’t Afford a Real Home? Buy Property in Second Life and Build Your Own
Bay Area: Do You Really Belong Here?
Portola Valley: There’s a New Market in Town

June 27, 2008

Portola Valley: There’s a New Market in Town

Portola Valley and La Honda residents welcomed the new Robert’s Market to the neighborhood this week, as it took over and remodeled an old storefront at Alpine and Portola roads. Robert’s, the wonderful family owned market in Woodside, has expanded their empire to serve its southern constituents. The Grand Opening of the full-service grocery was on Wednesday, and when I visited on Thursday afternoon, the place was buzzing with activity. Customers, friendly staff, and a great looking store were my first impressions.

The Robert’s family worked long and hard to get this rolling and they have done an impressive job. Beautiful wood floors, a large deli counter with prepared foods, gourmet specialties, and freshly made sandwiches, a larger produce section than the Woodside store and, as always, a really great selection of wines (if you don’t see what you want, just ask). Their butcher shop is completely new, with a beautiful green-tiled back wall, new butcher blocks, and gleaming cases. You might want to check out their special Blackjack Tri-tip. Black in color and full of flavor, it is priced at $11.11 and if you pick the right cut of meat (namely 1.98 pounds) and it prices out at $21 (blackjack, get it?), you get the meat for free. It’s one of my family’s favorites.

The store will serve Portola Valley and La Honda residents, as well as the hundreds of bikers that ride the hills in the area (and are also a constant presence at their Woodside store).

The store can be a bit difficult to recognize from the road, as the town apparently forbids storefronts from having signage on them. There are banners at each corner of the parking lot, facing Alpine Road. So if you are in the area, stop on by and check it out.

If you go this weekend, you can also check out these open houses:

76 Old Spanish Trail, 2/2, 1205 sf, .46 acres, $1,098,000 ($911/sf)
Open Sunday 1:30-4:30

346 Wayside Road, 2/2, 1510 sf, 1.01 acre, $1,249,500 ($827/sf)
Open Sunday 1:30-4:30

185 Shawnee Pass, 4/3.5, 2620 sf, 1 acre, $2,879,000 ($1,099/sf)
Open Sunday 1:30-4:30

30 Bear Gulch Drive, 5/4, 3981 sf, 1,2 acres, $4,250,000 ($1,068/sf)
Open Sunday 1:30-4:30

June 27, 2008

Festival Fridays: Oakland’s Montclair Village Fine Arts Festival

The 33rd Annual Montclair Village Fine Arts Festival is being held this weekend, Friday through Sunday, in the Montclair district of Oakland. Montclair Village is nestled in the upper Oakland hills and definitely lives up to its moniker of “village”, not feeling at all like part of a big urban city. The downtown, along Mountain Blvd and adjacent streets, is primarily comprised of boutiques and small businesses, gourmet as well as standard food fare, and a large recreation center. The weather should be nice, so plan on heading over this way, checking out the booths, the Farmer’s Market on Sunday, and then seeing some of the wonderful homes available for sale in the neighborhood.

Location: Montclair Village is located just off of the Warren Freeway (Hwy 13) between Park Blvd. and Moraga Ave.
Date: Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
Time: Fri 10-6; Sat 10-5; Sun 10-5

Montclair is noted for its low crime rate and good schools, and you can get more bang for your buck than in the Crocker Highlands neighborhood or over in Berkeley. There are approximately 21 homes available for sale in this area, ranging in price from $445,000 to $3,500,000. Five on the west side of Highway 13, 9 on the east side, and 6 that cannot be mapped. There are none known to have an open house this weekend, but that shouldn’t prevent you from driving by and checking them out. Here are the 6 homes closest to downtown on the east side of Highway 13:

Closest to downtown is 1901 Magellan Drive, a 5/2 listed for $905,000 ($437/sf). On the market 19 days, a contemporary home with great views. Close to BART and the freeway.

Nearby is 5905 Zinn, a good example of mid-mod architecture with lots of windows and resulting light. Being offered by the original owner for $777,000 ($568/sf), you get over a quarter of an acre with this home.

There are 3 homes along Colton Blvd, a traditional 3/2 fixer at 6030 listed for $750,000 ($436/sf), an 4/3 updated rancher at 6097, offering great views and a price tag of $899,000 ($339/sf), and a 2/2 contemporary on a substandard lot at 6670, listed for $600,000 ($369/sf).

There is also 3/2.5 of 2,065 sf updated modern home with large airy rooms at 5931 Mazuela Drive listed for $899,000 ($435/sf), which could quite possibly be my favorite of the bunch.

It would be remiss of me not to mention the biggest festival happening this weekend. The 2008 San Francisco LGBT Pride Celebration and Parade will be taking place Saturday and Sunday. The theme “United by Pride, Bound for Equality” comes on the heels of the historic decision to allow all people to marry, regardless of gender. On Saturday, the celebration will take place in the Civic Center from noon to 6pm, and on Sunday there is the annual parade, with Cyndi Lauper and Charo the celebrity grand marshals, beginning on Market Street at 10:30. The parade is followed by events in Civic Center Plaza from noon to 7 pm. This will be a particularly well-attended event, so plan on using public transit, as parking will be difficult.

June 26, 2008

Redfin Upgrading and Expanding (Again!)

Yes, it’s true, Redfin programmers really never sleep (in a bed anyway). Ever. I mean, how could they, when all they seem to do is make the Redfin site better and better? And build more Sweet Digs blogs for new areas? In fact, I’m beginning to think that no one at Redfin corporate ever sleeps, given their dedication and expansion efforts. No wonder CEO Glenn Kelman needs fancy airbrushed makeup when he does a TV interview, he’s gotta cover up the bags under his eyes.

So what have the Seattle and SF bunch been up to lately? Well they just released Redfin 4.7, their fourth major site release in the past five months.

On the Redfin search site, they have incorporated Google Street View and zoom-in capability on the map of each listing. And when viewing a Sold listing, there is more information for you to help decide if it is a true comparable property, including having the sales history front and center, as well as neighborhood comps for a sold property.

For Buyers, there are better Tour with Redfin and Prepare an Offer messages on each detail page and they have updated the Offer Wizard to allow potential customers to see how it works without having to go through registration. They have also done some spiffing up on Customer pages with new visual designs, more messages and more details.

Redfin has also added another 4,000,000+ homes to their search areas, which includes Santa Cruz and Monterey counties in California.

On the technical side, they sped up the details pages, fixed the Google page sitemap for SEO, added Firefox 3 support & post to Facebook, let users search for MLS-listed foreclosures, and added infrastructure for tracking how different conversion messages work. (See what I mean about them never getting any sleep?) Glenn Kelman writes about this today on the corporate blog.

Oh, and Redfin has added a new territory: Welcome the Windy City to the list of cities Redfin now covers. An official Redfin brokerage has opened in Chicago, over 100,000 listings and 1.7 million properties are loaded up and ready to view, and a Chicago Sweet Digs and Chicago forum have been launched. We wish them all success, and can’t wait for a Giants vs. Cubs game!

June 26, 2008

Bay Area Air Quality in Danger with Recent Fire Activity

Every day in the news we are seeing a new fire break out, either in the 9 county Bay Area or nearby. It appears that California is experiencing an unusually high incidence of wildfires this early in the year. According to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, there are currently 1,032 fires active in the state, burning over 132,000 acres, with only 232 are contained. Almost 12,000 firefighters are battling these blazes at the time of this writing, and my understanding is that more are being hired as the summer fire season progresses.

Right now four fires are throwing smoke our way:

• In the north, the Wild Fire in Napa/Solano Counties began on Saturday burning over 4000 acres, and is now 100% contained. Only 1 outbuilding was destroyed.
• The Whitehurst/Hummingbird Fire west of Gilroy and Morgan Hill in Santa Clara County began on Saturday afternoon, and has claimed a total of about 994 acres. The Hummingbird Fire is 100% contained, and the Whitehurst was 95% contained at last report.
• A bit further south in Monterey County, the Indians Fire has been ongoing in Los Padres National Forest since June 8th. Spread out over the park’s 58,000 acres, it is reported to be 71% contained.
• A new Basin Complx Fire has broken out just above Monterey, and is comprised of two fires over 20,000 acres. So far 16 residences have been destroyed, with 500 more threatened. It is only 3% contained as of last night.

Smoke from wildfires in northern and central California is currently affecting air quality in the Bay Area. The Bay Area Air Quality District is reporting that air quality in portions of Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Solano, and Sonoma Counties is forecast to exceed federal health standards today. They are advising residents in areas affected by the smoke to be cautious and avoid unnecessary outdoor activities.

Recent Sweet Digs Posts
Oakland: Let’s Compare in the Laurel
San Mateo Welcomes New Housing Development: Park Bayshore
Perk Up Those Ears!
Home Prices In Berkeley (Or Should That Be Manhattan?) V. Oakland
Knifecatcher Alert, or How Much Lower Can it Go?

June 25, 2008

San Mateo Welcomes New Housing Development: Park Bayshore

It’s not often that you see new housing developments on the Peninsula; there’s just so little land available for such a use. But periodically they do pop up, like the new in San Mateo. Located on the east side of Highway 101, off E. 3rd Avenue in the South Shoreview neighborhood, this 4-building development is throwing open its doors for all to see (and hopefully buy). The development was conceived and built by Barry Swenson, the force behind Vendome Place in San Jose, Creekside Village in Los Gatos, and Carneros Village in Sonoma.

The complex has 21 multi-story units and two basic floor plans, each with 3 variations. Plan A units are all two-bedrooms of 1,230 square feet, while Plan B are three-bedrooms of 1,775 square feet. The first floor is garage and storage, main floor is communal space (kitchen and living room), and top floor is bedrooms. All units have decks or patios, and some have back yards.

Prices start at $575,000 and you can tour the property and preview units on Fridays from 11am-6pm.

So how does this development compare to other homes in the area? Assuming that a 2 bedroom, 1230 sf unit goes for $575,000 that means the lowest-end unit is $467/sf. Most of what is for sale in the South Shoreview neighborhood are single-family homes, most of the 1950s vintage. The sf price on homes currently for sale in the area range from $336/sf to $630/sf.

Comparing the 2/2.5 units at Park Bayshore, I found one 2/2, of 1076 square feet, built in 1983 that is on a 3120 sf lot. Asking price is $599,500 ($557/sf), DOM: 147. That’s $90 more per square foot. I also see that there is a 2/2.5 townhome built in 1999, slightly larger at 1530 sf, on the market 12 days for the price of $699,950 or $443/sf. So the new Park Bayshore units are definitely priced competitively to its two-bedroom neighbors.

There are no 3/2.5 comps, but the two offerings that have 3/2 are small at 1080 and 1010 sf each, and show square foot prices of $514-550/sf. There is one 4/2 of similar size (1690 sf), but it is a 54-year-old bright blue home offered pre-foreclosure for $599,000 ($354/sf). It was last sold in 2006 for $750,000.

So if you are heading out to cool off near the bay or hit some golf balls at nearby Mariners Point, think about swinging by Park Bayshore and checking it out. Don’t forget to let us know what you think.